送交者: Europeanese 于 2005-5-07, 17:31:45:
May 6, 2005
A Rising China
China's rapid economic growth and steady military modernization are transforming power relations across Asia. In recent weeks, Beijing has reached out to its old rival, New Delhi, courted Taiwanese opposition parties and fanned old grievances against Japan. This comes on top of the long-term deals that Chinese diplomats have been signing to give Beijing special access to the raw materials of Southeast Asia and Australia.
It's time for the United States to take more notice. America may still be Asia's dominant military power, but its economic role is receding as China advances. Unfortunately, Asian policy, long a stepchild for the Bush administration, has been further marginalized, thanks to the exit of the State Department's most respected Asia hands, Richard Armitage and Mitchell Reiss. Paul Wolfowitz's move to the World Bank leaves a similar void at the Pentagon.
By working out clear understandings with Beijing on regional issues today, Washington could help avoid unnecessary and highly destructive future conflicts. Here's what Washington should be focusing on right now:
Japan For years, the United States has urged Tokyo to cast off its postwar pacifism and play a larger role in regional defense. Japan's current prime minister, Junichiro Koizumi, is happy to oblige. But he has combined a more assertive military stance with an embrace of right-wing nationalism that offends and alarms the Asian nations that suffered wartime Japanese aggression and atrocities. His repeated visits to the Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo have been particularly provocative; the shrine is where top Japanese war criminals are among the honored and the country's Asian conquests are celebrated.
In this context, it was a mistake for Washington to encourage Japan recently to declare a security interest in matters concerning Taiwan, a former Japanese colony. Beijing seized on this declaration, along with Japan's bid for a permanent United Nations Security Council seat, as a pretext for permitting three weekends of anti-Japanese violence last month. Beijing achieved its purpose of throwing Tokyo onto the defensive, but is wrong to oppose Japan's Security Council bid and reckless to stir up past grievances. China and Japan, Asia's two biggest economic powers, need to work out a healthier relationship, and Washington should be actively looking for ways to help them.
Taiwan Beijing finally seems to be learning that honey works better than vinegar in winning over Taiwanese opinion. The warm welcome China gave last week to Taiwan's main opposition leader has now forced the island's independence-minded president, Chen Shui-bian, to send an emissary of his own. While Beijing's clear goal is to undermine Mr. Chen's party and help the opposition Nationalists, it has nevertheless set in motion a constructive dynamic that contrasts sharply with the negative response its menacing antisecession law elicited in March. The Bush administration should strongly support any initiative by either side that can help preserve an acceptable, if ambiguous, status quo.
India China's prime minister visited India last month and signed a series of agreements intended to increase bilateral trade and end a long-festering set of border disputes that once brought the two countries to war. An improved relationship between these rapidly developing countries, which are home to about 40 percent of the world's population, can only be welcomed. But it signals an enormous shift in the Asian power equation.
Washington must adjust to a rising China. The future peace and prosperity of Asia depend on it.