送交者: PhonyDoctorPhD 于 2005-5-12, 21:17:31:
回答: Phony and Englighten, 由 fengcu2000 于 2005-5-12, 17:17:54:
I don't pretend to be economist who I am truely not.
I think this guy has some points, but he kind of
say it in a vague kind of way.
Usually a "fixed exchange rate" means that a government
promises to honor a certain exchange rate regardless
the situation. This can become a problem when
the "actual" value of the country's currency
is LESS than the exchange rate entails. This happened
in Mexico before. They used to have one exchange rate,
but due to people's lack of confidence in Mexico's
economy, people all want to exchange Peso to
$. This one-sided "exchange" exhaused Mexico
government's foreign reserve. The real value of
Peso drops like a rock, causing hyperinflation.
Eventually, Mexico government broke its promise
and depreciate Peso, causing even MORE loss of
confidence, and even MORE inflation. Eventually,
US bailed them out with a huge loan of $.
China's situation is different. China has a huge
trade surplus and it is under the pressure to
inflate its exchange rate against $. If China
keeps refusing to up its exchange rate, RMB will be
seen as "undervalue" compared to $. As a result,
people will rush in to exchange $ for RMB or RMB
assets. This is used by some to explain the
current hot assets market in China, partly.
What this guy said is that since most "gamblers"
"stir-fring" China's market wants to cash in
when RMB appreciate, if China keeps the RMB rate
unchanged, they will "stay in the housing market".
This allows the Chinese government a slow 'deflation'
of housing market to avoid a free fall.