送交者: xj 于 2005-5-13, 17:34:58:
It is a classical example in psychology and was made by Nobel prize winner D Kahneman (behavioral economics 2003). It is quoted in almost all social psychology.
See Tversky and Kahneman, Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Science 185, September 27, 1974.
I assume you have JSTOR access. If not, I can email you if you want. It is a fun reading.
I was disappointed that most people didn't fully appreciate the psychological aspects of that blog post. It describes the intuitive thinking among common people. Many of you instead assume it is my errorenous logical reasoning.