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送交者: 短江学者 于 2016-11-06, 01:12:38:

引用:
It’s probably the biggest demographic story of this election: Hillary Clinton has made big gains with well-educated whites, particularly women. And Donald J. Trump has continued recent Republican gains in winning over less educated whites, particularly men. As Nate Cohn wrote in an article last month, education has replaced the culture wars as the defining electoral divide.

But what exactly do we mean by “educated”? Some Upshot readers, responding to the article, suggested it was about intelligence — that college-educated people can see through Mr. Trump because they’re smart.

You must mean high I.Q. v. low I.Q. when you say ‘college educated’ v. working class. The truth is, we are talking about smart people against not-so-smart people. — Mike Barker of Arizona

I wouldn’t say that Hillary is “struggling” with less educated voters. I think the issue is that the world is more complex than it has ever been, and these voters don’t understand our legal system, our electoral system, journalism, trade issues, the deficit, taxation, the Fed, NATO, the U.N., cyber espionage, immigration, counterterrorism, nuclear policy, diplomacy, the Geneva Conventions or the Constitution. — Jch of NY

The I.Q. connection is purely speculative; no rigorous studies have been published to support it. Other readers warned against the temptation to stereotype, pointing to various explanations and showing how difficult it is to come to definitive conclusions about the education correlation.

It’s About What You Learn

These days, the highly educated tend to be liberal. A Pew Research center study showed this growing connection among those with graduate degrees. Some readers said it had to do with what you learn at college: You become “educated.”

When I started university, I was taken aback by how much I didn’t know. It was exhilarating. Postsecondary education develops intangibles like the ability to think critically, and I think this explains why non-college-educated audiences are so vulnerable to exploitation by a Pied Piper like Trump. — Aaron, Phoenix


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Higher ed is where a lot of people from conservative families find out that there are other ways to look at the world than through narrow religious and political ideologies; where they learn to question authority and distinguish between fact and opinion; where they discover that there are many people different from them in myriad ways who also matter. — Katherine Bailey, Florida

No, It’s About Credentials and Social Class

What if you mostly goof off at college — beer pong at the fraternity instead of bearing down at the library — but manage to get a degree? You may not be “educated” but you still have an edge in the job market: The degree can be a ticket to a good job and the good life. If you don’t have that credential, you may feel left out and frustrated — and more willing to shake things up with Mr. Trump.

This election is divided along class lines. Why do we have such difficulty saying so?

The invocation of education as the prime delineating factor among the electorate is just another way to avoid saying the C-word. We’re not really talking about education, after all. We’re not talking about how well-read these people are, about their skills at differential calculus, or whether they can say snarky things at cocktail parties about the shoddy curation of the Tribeca Film Festival. No, we’re talking about the resentment that poorer people feel toward the accredited classes.” — Squidge Bailey, Brooklyn

It’s worth mentioning that income is not nearly as predictive of presidential preference in this election as education. Trump supporters are not as poor as a lot of people think. And at the highest levels of income, the rich are set to reverse a decades-long pattern and support a Democratic presidential candidate.

Or, You’re Learning the Wrong Things

Several readers blamed left-wing bias on campus, particularly among professors — or as one reader, L’Osservatore, put it, “the unquestioned control of collectivists and socialists on 95 percent of college campuses.”

When you have “safe zones” where ideas cannot be discussed and explored, you have indoctrination. Liberals have done all they can to dictate learning in America for over 40 years. — MRS Little Rock, Ark.

Why do the college-educated tend to vote Democrat? Simple. A young person entering any American college will take humanities courses in philosophy, literature, history, the social sciences, all taught by strongly left-leaning Democrats. It is impossible that they should emerge from this experience ideologically untouched.

All this I well know as a recently retired conservative academic of 40-plus years — the only Republican in a department of 22 professors.” — Rob, N.C.

Studies have shown that professors have in fact become more liberal, with faculty members in New England standing out as far more liberal than the rest. A group of professors, frustrated by this trend, has compiled a Heterodox Academy ranking of colleges based on ideological diversity.

But other readers, pointing to examples like the rejection by many Republicans of the science on climate change, said there was an “anti-intellectual” strain in the modern G.O.P. (Political science aficionados will think back to the book “Anti-Intellectualism in American Life” by Richard Hofstadter.)

Jane of Santa Rosa said, “This is why Donald Trump — and the G.O.P. by extension — ‘love the poorly educated.’ ”

In 2012, the Republican presidential candidate Rick Santorum called President Obama “a snob” for urging students to pursue college.


Santorum: Obama "A Snob" For Wanting Everyone To Go To College Video by tpmtv
A reader, John of Los Angeles, said of conservative complaints of one-sidedness: “Alternatively: Facts have a liberal bias.”

Maybe It’s About Location

The clustering of like-minded people — the so-called Big Sort — has been underway for quite a while, but the effect on political preferences seems to be accelerating in this election.

Region plays a role. In 2012, President Obama won a fairly high percentage of the white working class in Wisconsin and Minnesota, states with a tradition of labor rights and Progressive values. He didn’t do nearly as well with working-class whites in Southern states.

Top States as Measured by Diplomas
Hillary Clinton is favored to win each of these 15 states and the District of Columbia.

Percentage of people with bachelor’s degrees
D.C.
Massachusetts
Maryland
Colorado
Connecticut
New Jersey
Virginia
Vermont
New York
New Hampshire
Minnesota
Washington
Illinois
Rhode Island
California
Hawaii
48.5
38.2
37.3
35.9
35.6
34.5
34.0
33.1
32.4
32.0
31.5
31.0
30.6
30.5
29.9
29.6

Source: American Community Survey, 2011, percent of persons 25 years and older who have completed a bachelor’s degree, 2009.
Educated white voters are more likely to live in big cities or near them, areas that have had better job growth and that tend to lean liberal. The mostly liberal Northeast has the highest percentage of college graduates — you’re more likely to be expected to go to college — and the populous Northeast megalopolis, for example, draws college graduates searching for jobs.

College graduates from rural towns who move to a metropolitan area for work may have their views influenced by their new environment and social circles. It’s also possible that their views and interests may prompt them to move, whether in search of cultural opportunities or like-minded people. The result is social polarization by place.

Wisconsin is a good state to look at to see the class divisions. Trump is more popular in the counties where people are less educated and more rural and small town. In Trump country, Wisconsin, there’s resentment of the quality of schools in and around Madison and Milwaukee, yet they don’t want to look at how their aggressive attack on teachers and public education has convinced teachers to flock to areas where they are respected and paid well. — Jcarpenter, Midwest

Living in a blue city in a solidly red state, I think there is a rural/urban dynamic that many are overlooking. It’s less about educated vs. uneducated. A whole way of life, instead of fading quietly away, is going out with a bang. No one is putting their start-up next to the grain elevator in a town with one stoplight. — Jamie, Sioux Falls, S.D.

I think educated people support Democrats because they have better employment opportunities over a lifetime, not because they read philosophy in college. If you live in the I-95 corridor, the communities show growth and opportunities for education. If you live in small towns in the industrial heartland, your employment opportunities are limited. — Mary Mac, New Jersey

Or, About Rational Policy Preferences

A reader, William Hayes of Houston, said, “Trump promises jobs by rolling back globalization, which appeals to the undereducated, not because they’re stupid, but because they believe decreasing globalization will help them get good jobs.”

The “educational” divide is a red herring. We are going to have to think long and hard about the best way to address wealth inequity in a post-manufacturing economy. — BLM, Niagara Falls

Working-class whites have more to lose from Clinton’s preference for more free trade pacts and continued de facto open borders. It’s really simple as that. — Chloe, New England

What About Education and Tolerance?

A reminder here that the education correlation is among whites only. Nonwhites may have other priorities in assessing Mr. Trump. A reader, Space Needle from Seattle, wondered if Trump supporters were “simply angry about their perceived loss of power in a society growing increasingly diverse.” An article in The Times today explores “white anxiety that has fueled political tumult” not just in the United States, but throughout the Western world.

Perhaps the demographic factor is not so much one’s college experience, but rather the level of exposure a person has to persons of different social, sexual and cultural backgrounds, education levels, wealth and ethnicity, i.e. diversity. — David, California

I can’t say what drives the divide in your areas, but in mine (South Alabama), it is almost always race. The only exception is religion. — Willard Douglas, Alabama

Suburban and moderate white voters may be uncomfortable with more explicit appeals to racial, ethnic and religious resentment — and those who have the college credential would have less reason for scapegoating. Some studies have shown that education can increase tolerance, but there’s also evidence suggesting the effect can be overstated when it comes to race.

How Age and Education Connect

One overlooked factor is Mr. Trump’s success with older voters. He has polled much better among those over 65 than among millennials, perhaps because of his appeal to return America to perceived glory days.

Ed Kilgore of New York magazine said calling people “white working class” because they don’t have a diploma can be misleading: “It is important to understand that a majority of today’s seniors came of age at a time when a college education really was not necessary for most jobs — in many cases even management-track jobs.”

Educational attainment has been rising for decades. In the late 1960s, only about 10 percent of Americans had bachelor’s degrees. Today, that number is almost 33 percent, and for whites, it is around 36 percent. People with degrees tend to be more reliable voters.

The trends are clear. Each year, educational attainment of the public is increasing, and that does not bode well for Republicans. — Tom, Midwest

A Plea for Understanding

Two readers had advice for Democrats:

As a white male without a college degree, I think maybe you shouldn’t make such sweeping generalizations about an entire group of people. This is why we liberals have a hard time making inroads with this group. — Brett Hudgins of Seattle

Perhaps uneducated whites would be more open to the policies of the Democratic Party if they were approached with greater respect from the Left. Is anyone surprised that uneducated whites are unreceptive to individuals who castigate them as being inherently racist and incompetent? Would any reasonable person expect Latinos to view Trump favorably after he stereotyped them all as being rapists and criminals? — Addy, U.S.

Have we missed any reasons that white Americans with college degrees are less likely to support Mr. Trump? Let us know in the comments.

Update: A reader, DrJ. of Pa., adds a comment about the possible impact of religion. Mr. Trump is the overwhelming favorite of evangelical Christians:

“I think it’s relevant that conservatives are by and large more religious, certainly more fundamentally religious, than liberals. But religious SCHOLARS are not so religious.

“In religion, the open mind and love of scholarship leads one away from the path of the true believer. The desire to cling to tradition (and, I would say, superstition) leads these conservatives to be less likely to pursue education and scholarship.”

Update: It turns out that Mr. Trump himself has said that people are simply born smart (or not). He said he’s a “gene believer.”





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