Anybody watched CBS's "Prime Time" last night?



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送交者: fengcu2000 于 2005-7-15, 11:56:23:

It's about a farmer "doctor" who claims that the spirits of the dead doctor can enter his body and perform miracles. The program pre-selected 5 persons who planed to see the phony doctor six months ago and followed them. These people all have terminal illness. Six months later, 5 of them said they feel better. 4 of them checked by hospitals, (for example X ray on brain tunor) and found them physically improved (tumor shinked by more than half).

By using binomial model, it seems that the phony doctor who doesn't have any medical backgound really heals people. For exmaple, assume his success is merely luck, then the chances for termially sick people to physically improve should really low, say 0.1%. If 300 people was taken care of by him during the peiod, even if the four poeple in the show are the only ones get improved in this 300, the probability of those 4 improve themself (luck for the doctor) will be P(4,300, 0.001) is only 0.026%. That is awfully impossible. If more than 4 out of those 300 get improved (the CBS program did not say anything about other poeple who went there during the period), the possiblility will be even lower.



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