The Next Iraqi Crisis by Allan Topol



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送交者: HunHunSheng 于 2005-11-30, 14:17:18:

The Next Iraqi Crisis
Allan Topol | November 30, 2005
The United States' involvement in Iraq continues to prove the old adage: always expect the unexpected. The insurgency and the prisoner abuse scandal both exploded on the scene totally unexpected when the war should have been over. Congressman Murtha's call for a prompt troop withdrawal came like a bombshell out of the blue and precipitated a national debate on the issue. Those in positions of leadership in Washington have to anticipate what is coming next and decide how to deal with it.

In the last two weeks, two major events signaled a new looming crisis for the U.S. in Iraq. The first was the meeting in Cairo on November 22, organized by the Arab League, at which Iraq's Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds jointly demanded that the United States set a timetable for withdrawal of its troops from their country. The three parties went even further in a joint statement and endorsed the Iraqi insurgents 搇egitimate right?to resist U.S. occupation. Talk about a lack of gratitude for the sacrifices the U.S. has made. The Cairo statement is absolutely infuriating.

More than that, it demonstrates that each of the three parties would like us to leave Iraq for their own reasons. The Shiites, with sixty percent of the population, believe that they now have the upper hand in dominating the new government that will be solidified by the December elections. With their control over the armed forces, Shiite leaders believe they can move Iraq toward a theocracy, allied with Iran, once the U.S. leaves and is no longer on the ground insisting on a secular form of government, including rights for women.

The Sunnis, for their part, though a minority, still believe that they have the most experienced military forces thanks to Saddam's former army; and the insurgency is being led by Sunnis. As the Sunnis view it, the United States is blocking them from a fair fight in which they will retake control of the country. Finally, the Kurds have been solidifying their control over the north including oil rich Kirkuk. Once the United States is gone, they expect to have a stranglehold over these areas.

The second event occurred on November 26 when Abdul Aziz Hakim, the Shiite leader of Iraq's most powerful political party, called on the United States to let Iraqi fighters take a more aggressive role against the insurgents. Hakim asserted that the United States, a 揼uest?of the Iraqi government, is tying its hands and pursuing 搈istaken or wrong policies.?As Hakim views the situation, the U.S. is acting like a referee in the ring limiting what one of the combatants, namely the Shiite controlled Iraqi army, can do. The Shiites now have support and assistance from Iranian intelligence and security forces, and they are prepared to launch an all out attack on the Sunni led insurgency.

What these two events have in common is that they are a harbinger of what will occur next year. A new and pivotal element in the debate about when and at what rate U.S. troops will begin withdrawing from Iraq is what the Iraqis want. These two events send the same message. All three Iraqi factions will demand that U.S. and other foreign troops leave next year.

Let's assume that the U.S. military is winning the war, although more time is needed, and President Bush is prepared to take the domestic heat on the issue, while leaving troop levels close to where they now are. That won't decide the issue. The U.S. and our coalition partners are in Iraq under a U.N. mandate recently extended for another six months. When the new Iraqi government, the one that emerges after the December elections, the one that we shed the blood of our troops to establish, insists on an immediate and aggressive timetable for withdrawal, the entire dynamic of the debate will change. The U.N. will then refuse to extend the mandate.

In that situation, I believe that the United States will pack up and leave. That will not be the best result for the future of Iraq because it will lead to a civil war. However, that result is inevitable. Faced with increasing domestic opposition to the war, the Bush administration will have no choice but to accept the Iraqi demands for withdrawal, particularly next year, which happens to be a congressional election year.





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