这篇是“反驳”拥枪派关于澳洲禁枪后枪杀案反而上升的观点的,但还算比较平衡。


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送交者: doublepar 于 2016-06-23, 05:22:28:

回答: 澳大利亚禁枪后枪杀人数明显下降。 由 Zzz 于 2016-06-23, 04:48:39:

http://www.snopes.com/crime/statistics/ausguns.asp

http://www.aic.gov.au/statistics/homicide.html

http://www.aic.gov.au/statistics/homicide/weapon.html

统计数字表明,澳洲的谋杀案从禁枪前就呈现下降趋势,所以跟96年禁枪没什么关系。枪杀案的比例有所下降,但用刀的比例更大了,所谓的补偿效应。
而且现在澳洲总拥枪量比96年禁枪前还多,更说明禁枪和枪杀案之间连相关性都没有,更不用说因果性了。
最后一段,说就算在澳洲,结论也不明确,更不能推广到美国来了。

The main point to be learned here is that determining the effect of changes in Australia's gun ownership laws and the government's firearm buy-back program on crime rates requires a complex long-term analysis and can't be discerned from the small, mixed grab bag of short-term statistics offered here. And no matter what the outcome of that analysis, the results aren't necessarily applicable to the USA, where laws regarding gun ownership are (and always have been) much different than those in Australia.




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