送交者: skipper3 于 2005-1-22, 12:54:05:
回答: 2005年元旦谈天下事 由 笑狮子 于 2005-1-21, 11:43:14:
1. You have my blessing for your enterprise. Some people talk and others do. Good for you.
2. Be careful when you talk quality. Don't confuse it with design I mean industry design, brand image and technology. Quality is not facts but consumer perception sometimes opinions. Perception can be managed and opinion can be manipulated that's marketing. Whether Sony invented color TV or not is irrelevant. Consumers don't care. See even you don't know whether they did it or not. You'd better look at firms like Samson and LG, both invented nothing and started by selling craps but they are making far more profits and return on capital than Sony and Matsushita combined.
"比较今日的中国和１０年前的日本" is not a fair comparison. Japanese consumer electronics and automobiles entered global market as early 1970s. When did Chinese producer sell the first television using its own brand in US and Europe?
Talking about marketing and design. There is a big problem that there are not many good marketing genius and industry designers around china. But that has nothing to do with science/technology or democracy. Blame the education. China has a whole generation of people who are educated to have no confidence that they can do things better than foreigners nor do they have the imagination of doing things differently. It's already too late to teach them how to think outside the box, though many of them particularly those self labeled elites believe them can. But a new generation is coming. Wait and see what they will do.
Chinese producers will soon face addition problems too. For one, competitors have already started linking product quality and profits to non-market factors like human rights, labor condition and environment. When commenting on Lenovo they don't forget to tell consumers the company is "owned by or has close tie to chinese government". It's not politically correct to allow a company who has perceived close link to a government that abuses human rigths to make fat profit from consumers in a democratic country. But that's how the game is played out. China has to deal with it. One thing it should do is making investment in media and communication industry. The complete monopoly of information distribution/broadcasting by US/Europe in markets which Chinese producers are targeting has to be broken. That's a priority.
3. Chinese currency. This just shows how western media can make a big influence to even well educated and informed people like you. Why "与美元的订死汇率，越来越成为众矢之的" not "众望所归"？You gave an impression that you think Chinese government is doing something wrong or unacceptable by the "international community"? In a market there no right or wrong only profits. Competitors getting nervous just proves what chinese does is good for themselves. When the time comes there is not much noise about exchange rate china then can decide what it will do with it based on its own interests.
But it's not a big deal anyway. Productivity gain in china is at an annualized pace of 16% for the last 5 years. A small revaluation will be easily offset by productivity increase. Chinese manufacturers can make adjustment with little trouble. After all they import raw material export finished goods. Labor cost makes only small portion of the total value of the products measured by retail prices. So why don't they revalue the currency to make everyone happy? Because it's a bargaining chip that carries a lot of perceived value. Chinese will use it when they need to. It's not teh time yet.