I did not make any prediction before. I could guess, but there is no meaning in guessing. Even if I guessed right, it'd have no meaning. I wrote before that it would be hard to determine between 故意杀人 and 故意伤害. (I did learn from news that the prosecutor intended to pursue neither, so that was meant only as an academic discussion.) Some reader disagreed with me. They felt it must be 故意杀人. But my point was not that I preferred one or the other. The point is there is enough room in the law and evidence to choose between the two (unless Xiao insists on he intended to kill) so it could pick the one it likes while still claiming to be fair. So FZZ should argue that it was 故意杀人 and Xiao should argue the opposite. And the judges will decide based on things that only they themselves know. Going for 寻衅滋事 is just too far. It is like adding salt to the wound. It exceeded any reasonable boundary. But the verdict should not surprise anybody aware of the reality in China. In fact, even if the outcome was much harsher toward Xiao, it would deliver justice in this case but would not really mean the system is working well in general. Remember that it could be one kind of result in Beijing and the opposite in Wuhan?

But still the verdict is deeply disappointing and scary. I expressed the belief before, and I emphasize it again now, that it will affects far more than FZZ. Because FZZ is the most visible force against fraud, this must be understood as a major defeat for the fight against fraud. No need to pretend otherwise. Its greatest impact may in fact be in law and order. Because this is a well publicized case, many people follow it and are now calculating in their mind the opportunity cost of hiring someone to attack someone else. If this verdict stands, it will show the world that you cannot beat Chinese wage in anything. Maybe the mafia and the cartels will outsource most of their wet job to China, causing a profound economic shift and make China the #1 GDP country far sooner than expected.

Because it is the morning after, it is time to get dressed and recover from the shock. If you cannot avoid it, but enjoying it is against your principle, then the only consolation left is analysis. First, even though it is bad, it could be worse. Xiao at least is a criminal now, and he could now improve his method on many prisoners who lost bladder control after playing hiding the cat. Second, some have suggested that FZZ just pack and leave. This is clearly a decision for his family to make, but currently it still is not the only possibility. Improving the working environment probably is beyond the capacity of current dajia, so one should think how to operate within the working environment, continue the fight against fraud, while guarding the security of the movement itself. Third, it probably is time to 痛定思痛. Are there lesson to be learned, could something be done better?

Before I post this I refreshed the page, and saw some rooster or chick posted something very short which has some overlap with a very small subset of my writing, but judging from the time of his post, he wrote it later than I did. :) (I had to type a much longer one.)